Austin Metro Market Report: What's Really Happening Right Now

Hi, friends —

I get asked almost every day some version of the same question: "Christi, what's the market actually doing?" Headlines love a simple story, but real estate rarely gives us one. So instead of a soundbite, I want to walk you through the real data — both what happened this past week and what the last five years tell us about where we are in the cycle. My goal is always the same: give you the full, honest picture so you can make confident decisions, whether you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on your investment.

This Week's Snapshot: Activity Is Cooling Across the Board

Our latest numbers from Texas National Title, covering the week of August 24–31, show a fairly consistent story across all three counties: new listings, closings, and contracts are down compared to three weeks prior.

A couple of things worth noting here. First, this is a late-summer slowdown — the kind of seasonal pullback we typically see as families wrap up their moves before the school year and the market takes a breath heading into fall. Second, Hays County's closings figure (↓48%) looks dramatic, but it's worth remembering Hays is our smallest county by volume — with numbers this size, a handful of transactions shifting timing can swing the percentage sharply. I'd rather explain that context than let a single week's number alarm you.

The Bigger Picture: Five Years of Central Texas Trends

Here's where it gets genuinely interesting — and where the real story lives. Looking back across five years of data through mid-2026, a clear pattern emerges: transaction activity is rebounding strongly, while prices remain well below their 2022 peak.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA (the whole region)

Home sales this year are running at levels we haven't seen since 2022's record highs — June 2026 nearly matched the all-time peak, and July was the strongest July in five years. At the same time, median price ($439,000) and average price ($584,000) remain meaningfully below 2022's highs and are tracking close to last year's levels. In plain terms: buyers are transacting again, but pricing power has shifted meaningfully in their favor compared to three years ago. Total listings hit an all-time high for July, and monthly inventory now sits at 5.58 months — solidly a buyer's market by the traditional definition.

Williamson County: Riding the Regional Wave

Williamson is mirroring the broader region closely — its strongest July for closed sales in five years, alongside record-high listing inventory (4,684) and rising months of inventory (5.20). If you're selling in Williamson right now, expect more competition on the shelf than a year ago; if you're buying, you have real leverage.

Travis County: A Possible Turning Point

Travis stands out as the one county bucking the broader inventory trend. While sales volume is strong (July's $955.9 million came within a hair of the 2022 record), total listings and months of inventory actually pulled back from last year's peak. Every other geography we track is still climbing in available inventory — Travis may be the first to plateau. It's early, and one data point doesn't make a trend, but it's something I'll be watching closely over the next several months.

Hays County: The Most Buyer-Friendly Market of the Three

Hays continues to show the softest pricing of our three counties — median price of $365,000 sits roughly 19% below its 2022 peak, the largest compression we're seeing anywhere in our footprint. Inventory keeps climbing to new highs (2,226 active listings, 5.50 months of supply), which means Hays currently offers the most negotiating room for buyers in Central Texas.

What This Means for You

• If you're selling: Pricing strategically from day one matters more than ever. In a market with this much inventory on the shelf, a home priced right — supported by real comps and condition-adjusted pricing — will still move. One that's priced hopefully will sit, and price reductions are already elevated across all three counties.
• If you're buying: This is one of the more balanced windows we've seen in years. Inventory is up, price growth has cooled, and sellers are more willing to negotiate than they were at the 2022 peak.
• If you're just watching: Keep an eye on Travis County's inventory trend over the next couple of reporting periods. If that plateau holds, it could be an early signal of where the broader market heads next.

As always, market data tells you the "what" — but the "so what" depends entirely on your specific goals, timeline, and property. I'd love to talk through what any of this means for your situation specifically.

A Note of Thanks

This report is built on data generously provided by our partners at Texas National Title, whose weekly Market Watch and five-year trend analyses (sourced through the Texas REALTOR® Data Relevance Project, the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, and the Austin Board of REALTORS®) make reports like this possible. We're grateful for their continued partnership. Follow TNT on social media at @texasnationaltitle or visit texasnationaltitle.com.

Market data is subject to change and should be independently verified for any specific transaction decision.

Christi Davidson Broker Associate | Christi Davidson Real Estate Group | eXp Realty 512-426-7399 | Christi@davidsonregroup.com | www.callchristi.com Your Trusted Real Estate Advisor for Life.