Five Years of Central Texas Real Estate: What the August 2026 Trends Mean for You

Hi, friends —

Every few months, our partners at Texas National Title send over one of my favorite reports: a five-year look at home sales, prices, and inventory across Central Texas. The latest edition runs through August 2026, and it puts this year's market in perspective in a way the week-to-week numbers can't.

The short version is that more people are buying homes this year, and they're paying less than at any point in the last five years. Here's the full picture, county by county, and what it means for you.

The Big Picture: More Sales, Lower Prices

Sales are up. From January through August, the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro recorded 22,100 home sales, compared with 20,486 over the same stretch last year. That's an increase of about 7.9%. Every month from February through August outpaced the same month in 2025.

Prices are lower. The metro median sales price in August was $410,970, down about 6% from August 2025 and about 17% below the August 2022 peak of $497,745. The average price came in at $559,290, down about 3% from last year.

One note of caution: August is a single month. In June and July the metro median nearly matched last year's level. August's dip could be the start of a fall pullback, or it could be a one-month blip. I'll be watching September closely.

Inventory is easing. There were 14,078 active listings across the metro in August, almost exactly where we were a year ago. Because buyers are more active, that inventory is moving faster. Months of inventory measures how long the current supply would last at today's sales pace. It dropped from 5.62 months last August to 5.29 months this August. In August 2022, it was just 2.9 months. We're still in balanced territory, which means neither buyers nor sellers hold all the cards.

County by County

The headline numbers tell one story, but each of our three core counties is moving in its own direction.

Travis County: The Upper End Is Holding Up

• Median price: $499,500, down about 5% from last August and the lowest August median in five years
• Average price: $708,891, essentially flat compared with last year
• Sales: 1,181 in August (down 4%), but up 8.3% year to date
• Months of inventory: 5.41, down from 6.19 a year ago

The gap between the median and the average is the story here. When the median drops but the average holds steady, it tells us higher-priced homes are still selling well, while more entry-level and mid-range homes are closing at lower prices. Travis also has about 5.5% fewer active listings than a year ago, so supply is tightening in the core.

Williamson County: The Region's Volume Leader

• Median price: $399,394, down 6% and the lowest August median in five years
• Average price: $461,820, down about 5%
• Sales: 929 in August (up 5%) and up 10.2% year to date, the strongest growth of the three counties
• Months of inventory: 4.82, down from 5.22, and the tightest of our three counties

Williamson continues to be the region's most consistent market for sales volume. Buyers are responding to more approachable prices, and supply is tightening as a result.

Hays County: More Choices, Steady Prices

• Median price: $349,900, nearly unchanged from last year, and still the most affordable of our three counties
• Average price: $436,204, down about 8%
• Sales: 463 in August (up 2%), essentially flat year to date
• Active listings: 2,221, up 14.5% from last August
• Months of inventory: 5.44, up from 4.59

Hays is moving the opposite direction from the rest of the region. It's the only county where supply grew, and it now has the most months of inventory of the three. Earlier this year, Hays was our tightest market. Today, it offers buyers the most selection.

Where We Are Right Now

The five-year report runs through August, but our weekly Market Watch from Texas National Title brings us up to date. In the first full week of October, closings rose in all three counties and price reductions eased everywhere. Fewer homes are coming to market, which is normal for fall. Pending sales are also slowing, which points to a quieter November and December.

Put together, the market looks like it's finding its footing after a summer of price adjustments.

What This Means If You're Buying

• Prices are at five-year lows. Every one of our three counties posted its lowest August median since 2022. If you've been waiting for prices to come back to earth, they have.
• Your negotiating power varies by county. Hays offers the most selection and the most room to negotiate. In Williamson, inventory is tighter, so well-priced homes move faster.
• Don't wait for a bottom you can't see. Sales are up nearly 8% this year, so other buyers have already noticed these prices. As inventory continues to tighten in Travis and Williamson, the window for negotiating leverage may narrow by spring.
• Get pre-approved before the holidays. Lenders, appraisers, and title companies all slow down in December. Having your financing ready lets you move quickly when the right home appears.

What This Means If You're Selling

I'll always give it to you straight, because that's what 28 years in this market has taught me: buyers are out there, and they're buying, but they're buying at today's prices, not 2022's.

• Price for today's market. A median that's 17% below its 2022 peak is the market speaking. Homes priced to current conditions are the ones closing.
• Know your county. A Williamson seller faces less competition than a Hays seller does. Your pricing and preparation strategy should reflect where your home sits.
• The top of the market is holding up well in Travis. Average prices are steady while the median has slipped, which tells us well-presented higher-end homes are still finding buyers.
• Thinking about spring? Start now. Repairs, updates, and a smart pricing plan take time. Sellers who prepare over the winter are the ones who launch strong when the market picks up.

The Bottom Line for Central Texas

Five years ago, Central Texas was a seller's market with homes lasting under three months and prices climbing fast. Today, we're in a balanced market with more sales, more reasonable prices, and real opportunity on both sides of the deal. The key is knowing which county you're in and what that market is doing right now.

Whether you're buying, selling, or simply curious about what your home is worth, I'd love to talk it through with you.

A special thank you to our partners at Texas National Title for providing the five-year trend data behind this update, and for their continued support of our Central Texas community.

Warmly,
Christi Davidson
Broker Associate | Christi Davidson Real Estate Group | eXp Realty
512-426-7399 | Christi@davidsonregroup.com | www.callchristi.com
Your Trusted Real Estate Advisor for Life

Data courtesy of Texas National Title, sourced through the Texas REALTOR® Data Relevance Project and the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Market data is subject to change.