Mid-October Market Watch: Three Counties, Three Different Stories

Hi, friends —

Our friends at Texas National Title just delivered the latest Market Watch, covering October 12–19. Last week I told you the market was finding its footing after a challenging summer. This week confirms it in Travis County, but it also shows our three counties heading in noticeably different directions. If you're buying or selling right now, which county you're in matters more than any metro-wide headline.

This Week's Snapshot

Percentages reflect the change from the Monday three weeks prior.

What stands out:

• Travis County price cuts fell 22%. There were 566 reductions this week, down from 629 last week and 728 at the end of Q3. That's three straight reports moving in the right direction for sellers.
• Hays County is moving the other way. Price reductions rose 17% to 333, and withdrawals climbed 30%.
• Williamson is the only county where closings rose, up 4% to 178. Withdrawals fell 25%, so fewer Williamson sellers are pulling their homes off the market.
• New listings fell in all three counties, led by Travis at 11%. That's normal for this time of year.
• The pipeline keeps thinning. Pending sales fell in every county, led by Travis at 15%. Fewer pending sales today usually means fewer closings in November and December.

County by County

Travis County: Sellers Are Adjusting, and It's Working

Price cuts have now dropped for three straight reports, from 728 to 629 to 566. This week there were about two and a half price cuts for every home sold, compared with more than three at the end of Q3. Closings held steady at 225, and under-contract activity ticked up from 172 last week to 181. Expired listings rose 9% to 47 and withdrawals held at 145. Those are mostly sellers who started above the market and ran out of time.

Hays County: More Selection, More Pressure

Hays logged 333 price cuts against 68 closings this week, which works out to nearly five reductions for every home sold. Withdrawals rose 30% and expired listings rose 57%. Hays is our smallest market, so 11 expired listings can produce a big percentage swing. Still, the direction matches what the five-year data showed us: Hays was the only county where active listings grew over the past year, up 14.5% in August. Right now, Hays is the most negotiable market in the region.

Williamson County: The Steady Volume Leader

Williamson was the only county to post more closings, up 4% to 178. Price cuts fell 8% and withdrawals fell 25%. The one caution is the pipeline: under-contract activity dropped 13% to 100 and pending sales slipped 6%, so closings will likely soften in the weeks ahead. Even so, Williamson remains the region's most consistent market. In August it had the tightest inventory of our three counties and the strongest sales growth year to date.

What This Means If You're Buying

• In Hays, you have leverage. With nearly five price cuts for every sale, many sellers are motivated. Ask for a better price, repairs, or help with closing costs.
• In Travis, the discount window is narrowing. Sellers have largely adjusted, and well-priced homes are going under contract. Don't count on deep cuts on the best homes.
• In Williamson, be ready to move. Inventory is the tightest in the region, and good homes don't sit for long.
• Get your financing in place before the holidays. Lenders, appraisers, and title companies all slow down in December. A pre-approval lets you act quickly when the right home appears.

What This Means If You're Selling

I'll always give it to you straight, because that's what 28 years in this market has taught me: right now, your county shapes your strategy.

• In Travis, price it right from day one. The expired and withdrawn listings this week are mostly sellers who didn't. The ones who priced to the market are getting offers.
• In Hays, plan for competition. Pricing, presentation, and incentives all matter. A well-placed concession, like help with a buyer's rate or closing costs, can do more than another price cut.
• In Williamson, demand is holding. With fewer new listings coming on, a well-prepared home faces less competition than it did this summer.
• Thinking about spring? Start now. Repairs, updates, and a smart pricing plan take time. Sellers who prepare over the winter are the ones who launch strong.

The Bottom Line for Central Texas

Travis County sellers are finding their footing, Williamson continues to lead on volume, and Hays is still adjusting to more supply. Across all three, the thinning pipeline points to a typical holiday slowdown ahead. Overall, this is a balanced market that rewards prepared buyers and realistic sellers. The details just look different depending on where you live.

Whether you're thinking about this season or next spring, I'd love to help you make a plan that fits your part of Central Texas.

A special thank you to our partners at Texas National Title for providing the weekly Market Watch data behind this update, and for their continued support of our Central Texas community.

Warmly,
Christi Davidson
Broker Associate | Christi Davidson Real Estate Group | eXp Realty
512-426-7399 | Christi@davidsonregroup.com | www.callchristi.com
Your Trusted Real Estate Advisor for Life

Market Watch data courtesy of Texas National Title, sourced from the Austin Board of REALTORS®. Five-year figures from Texas National Title and the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Market data is subject to change.