Central Texas Real Estate 2026: Where We’ve Been and Where We’re Headed

Hi, friends —

With three quarters of 2026 behind us, I want to step back from the weekly numbers and answer the question I hear most often: “Christi, what kind of year has it really been, and what should I do between now and January?”

Our partners at Texas National Title just released their September heat map, which shows the change in median sales price for every ZIP code across Central Texas compared to a year ago. Together with the weekly market data we’ve followed all year, it gives a clear picture. Here’s my honest read.

The Year So Far: Three Chapters

Spring brought a surge. In mid-April, Travis County saw more than 600 new listings and 300 closings in a single week, and contracts were climbing quickly. Buyers came back in force, and sellers listed with high expectations.

Summer was a reality check. By June and July, activity cooled and price reductions jumped across all three core counties. Even so, the summer brought good news. Regional home sales were running at their strongest pace since 2022, and every core county posted its first June-over-June median price increase in four years. Homes were selling. They just weren’t selling at any price a seller wanted.

Fall has been a reset. Labor Day brought a wave of expired listings as spring listing agreements ran out. By the end of September, Travis County’s weekly new listings and closings were well below spring levels, but price reductions were right where they started the year. Weekly reductions in Travis County have been above 700 in nearly every snapshot we’ve tracked since April. This year, pricing pressure has been the rule rather than the exception.

What September’s Prices Tell Us

TNT’s September heat map covers 77 ZIP codes across the region. Compared with September 2025:

• 30 ZIP codes saw median prices rise
• 4 held flat
• 43 saw median prices decline

That’s not a crash. Most of the declines are in the single digits. But it confirms that 2026 has been a year of price discipline, not price growth.

Three patterns stand out to me:

1. Affordable price points held up best. Several of the strongest gains came in ZIP codes with medians under $480,000. Buyers are stretching for value, and well-priced entry-level homes are where demand is most dependable.
2. Luxury is split. Some west-side luxury areas posted strong gains, while others nearby declined. At the high end, the specific home and its pricing matter far more than the ZIP code.
3. The central core is soft. Several close-in central Austin ZIP codes saw double-digit declines. For buyers who have waited years to get into these neighborhoods, this may be the most accessible window in a long time.

Where Prices Are Moving, Area by Area

September 2026 median sales price and change from September 2025.

East, South & North Austin

The takeaway: Some of the region’s strongest gains came at accessible price points, though not every neighborhood shared in them.

Rising: 78741 Southeast Austin — $430,000 (up 38%) · 78744 South Austin — $477,000 (up 38%) · 78758 North Austin — $430,000 (up 24%) · 78721 East Austin — $465,000 (up 9%) · 78617 Del Valle — $319,979 (up 3%)

Holding steady: 78754 Northeast Austin — $366,250 (0%) · 78653 Manor — $341,595 (0%)

Softening: 78724 East Austin — $333,500 (down 2%) · 78745 South Austin — $398,375 (down 6%) · 78747 South Austin — $360,000 (down 7%) · 78725 East Austin — $277,000 (down 8%) · 78748 South Austin — $415,000 (down 8%) · 78723 East Austin — $560,000 (down 9%) · 78752 North Central Austin — $340,625 (down 9%)

Central Austin

The takeaway: The softest part of the region. Close-in neighborhoods that have been hard to buy into for years are seeing real price movement.

Rising: 78757 Allandale/Crestview — $699,500 (up 13%) · 78704 South Austin/Zilker — $904,750 (up 4%)

Holding steady: 78722 Cherrywood — $625,000 (0%)

Softening: 78705 UT/West Campus — $307,500 (down 2%) · 78702 East Central — $541,246 (down 12%) · 78703 Tarrytown/Clarksville — $1,280,000 (down 16%) · 78756 Rosedale/Brentwood — $569,000 (down 18%) · 78751 Hyde Park — $495,000 (down 25%) · 78701 Downtown — $718,500 (down 35%)

West Austin, Northwest Hills & Lake Travis

The takeaway: A split luxury market. Some neighborhoods posted the region’s biggest gains while nearby areas declined.

Rising: 78750 Northwest Austin — $742,500 (up 80%) · 78730 River Place area — $1,216,000 (up 71%) · 78733 West Lake Hills/Barton Creek — $1,969,000 (up 27%) · 78738 Lakeway/Bee Cave — $932,500 (up 25%) · 78736 Southwest Austin — $545,000 (up 24%) · 78731 Northwest Hills — $1,120,500 (up 20%) · 78739 Circle C — $820,000 (up 13%) · 78726 Four Points — $650,000 (up 6%) · 78732 Steiner Ranch — $830,000 (up 4%) · 78749 Southwest Austin — $585,000 (up 2%)

Softening: 78759 Arboretum area — $620,000 (down 2%) · 78734 Lakeway/Lake Travis — $644,500 (down 5%) · 78645 Lago Vista — $407,500 (down 9%) · 78737 Southwest Hill Country — $819,000 (down 10%) · 78746 West Lake Hills/Rollingwood — $1,485,000 (down 10%) · 78735 Barton Creek area — $772,250 (down 20%) · 78669 Spicewood — $598,000 (down 20%)

Williamson County & Northern Suburbs

The takeaway: Mostly flat to slightly lower, with steady gains in Round Rock, Leander, and Liberty Hill and softness in Cedar Park, Hutto, Pflugerville, and Taylor.

Rising: 78717 Brushy Creek/Avery Ranch — $605,000 (up 12%) · 78681 Round Rock — $522,945 (up 7%) · 78665 Round Rock — $372,500 (up 6%) · 78642 Liberty Hill — $467,700 (up 5%) · 78628 Georgetown — $527,000 (up 4%) · 78728 North Austin/Wells Branch — $388,500 (up 4%) · 78641 Leander — $459,575 (up 2%)

Holding steady: 78626 Georgetown — $356,450 (0%)

Softening: 78664 Round Rock — $334,750 (down 4%) · 76537 Jarrell — $255,000 (down 4%) · 78633 Georgetown — $400,000 (down 6%) · 78634 Hutto — $319,900 (down 6%) · 78660 Pflugerville — $370,749 (down 6%) · 76574 Taylor — $267,490 (down 8%) · 78613 Cedar Park — $436,969 (down 9%) · 78729 Northwest Austin — $432,000 (down 9%) · 78727 North Austin — $367,000 (down 15%)

Hays County

The takeaway: Leaning softer. San Marcos was the only gain, while Kyle, Driftwood, and Manchaca saw the largest declines.

Rising: 78666 San Marcos — $335,000 (up 3%)

Softening: 78610 Buda — $330,000 (down 1%) · 78620 Dripping Springs — $574,995 (down 4%) · 78676 Wimberley — $494,000 (down 4%) · 78640 Kyle — $291,490 (down 9%) · 78619 Driftwood — $865,000 (down 14%) · 78652 Manchaca — $405,500 (down 20%)

Surrounding Counties: Bastrop, Caldwell, Comal, Burnet, Bell & Milam

The takeaway: A wide range of results. Bastrop and Lockhart gained, while Smithville, Thorndale, and Elgin softened.

Rising: 78132 New Braunfels — $1,012,500 (up 118%) · 78602 Bastrop — $375,000 (up 10%) · 78644 Lockhart — $335,000 (up 6%) · 78654 Marble Falls — $430,000 (up 1%)

Softening: 78611 Burnet — $314,990 (down 2%) · 78657 Horseshoe Bay — $665,000 (down 3%) · 76542 Killeen — $260,000 (down 8%) · 78621 Elgin — $284,249 (down 8%) · 78130 New Braunfels — $277,000 (down 15%) · 78957 Smithville — $240,950 (down 16%) · 76577 Thorndale — $329,398 (down 18%)

A word of caution on the biggest swings. A median price reflects whichever homes happened to sell that month. In smaller ZIP codes, or areas with a wide mix of home types, a handful of high-end or low-end sales can move the number dramatically. Jumps like +118% in 78132 or +80% in 78750, or a drop like −35% in downtown’s condo-heavy 78701, tell us more about what sold than about what any one home is worth. I look at these numbers as regional patterns, not as a price tag on your house.

Looking Ahead: The Rest of 2026

Here’s what I expect between now and the new year. This is based on the patterns we’ve seen, not a crystal ball.

• The usual holiday slowdown. Activity typically tapers from mid-November through the holidays, with fewer listings, fewer buyers, and slower closings.
• Negotiation stays on the table. With price reductions this persistent all year, I don’t expect sellers to regain pricing power before January.
• Relisted homes will come back. Many homes that expired or were withdrawn this summer and fall will return, often at more realistic prices, either late this year or as part of the spring 2027 market.
• Prices stay flat to slightly softer overall, with bright spots. Well-located, well-priced homes, especially at accessible price points, should continue to hold their value.

What This Means for Buyers

The fourth quarter may be the most buyer-friendly window of 2026.

• Competition is thinning. Holiday-season buyers face fewer competing offers.
• Sellers expect to negotiate. Price, repairs, closing-cost help, and rate buydowns are all reasonable conversations right now.
• Look closely at softened areas. Neighborhoods where medians declined, including parts of central Austin, Cedar Park, Kyle, and Pflugerville, may offer real value for buyers planning to stay put.
• Stay disciplined. A lower price is only a deal if the home is right. Let’s use the data to tell the difference.

What This Means for Sellers

After 28 years in this market, I’ll always tell you the truth: this isn’t a “list it and they’ll come” year.

• Price for today’s market, not last spring’s. The homes selling quickly are priced correctly from day one.
• Know your micro-market. Your ZIP code’s direction matters, and so do your specific street, condition, and competition. That’s where a thoughtful pricing strategy earns its keep.
• Fall and winter buyers are serious. If you need to sell before spring, you’ll face fewer competing listings and more motivated buyers.
• Thinking about spring 2027? Now is the time to plan. Repairs, updates, and pricing strategy done this winter put you ahead of the spring rush.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, 2026 has been a year to buy with leverage, not chase appreciation.

• Entry-level demand is the most dependable. The price gains clustered at accessible price points are a signal about where buyer and renter demand is strongest.
• Use negotiating leverage. Persistent price reductions and motivated fall sellers create room to buy at better terms.
• Think long-term about growth corridors. Outlying areas like Bastrop, Taylor, and the edges of Williamson and Hays counties carry a range of prices and trends. For long-horizon investors, softness today can be an entry point. These are local markets where property-level detail matters.
• Underwrite conservatively. Plan for flat values in the near term. If the investment works at today’s numbers, any appreciation is a bonus.

The Bottom Line

2026 has been a year of balance in Central Texas. Buyers came back, homes sold steadily, and prices settled into a more sustainable range after years of extremes. The opportunities now belong to buyers, sellers, and investors who make decisions based on accurate local data and a clear plan.

Whether you’re planning a move before the holidays or getting ready for spring, I’d love to help you build that plan.

A special thank you to our partners at Texas National Title for providing the September Median Sales Price Heat Map and the weekly Market Watch data behind this update, and for their continued support of our Central Texas community. You can explore their interactive heat map at texasnationaltitle.com/mls-statistics-heatmap.

Heat map data reflects Austin MLS sales of houses and condos entered into the ABOR Matrix MLS system, September 2025 compared to September 2026. Townhomes, duplexes, and off-MLS sales are not included. MLS data is subject to change.

Christi Davidson
Broker Associate | Christi Davidson Real Estate Group | eXp Realty
📞 512-426-7399 | ✉️ Christi@davidsonregroup.com | 🌐 www.callchristi.com
Your Trusted Real Estate Advisor for Life