Late-October Market Watch: Closings Climb as the Holidays Approach

Hi, friends —

Our friends at Texas National Title just delivered the latest Market Watch, covering October 19–26. Last week I told you our three counties were telling three different stories. This week, a couple of those stories changed. Closings picked up everywhere, Hays County sellers found some relief, and Travis and Williamson saw price cuts tick back up. With just over two months left in 2026, it's also a good moment to step back and look at how this year has really played out for buyers and sellers.

This Week's Snapshot

Percentages reflect the change from the Monday three weeks prior.

What stands out:

• Closings rose in all three counties from last week. Travis climbed from 225 to 245, Hays from 68 to 88, and Williamson from 178 to 186. The percentages in the table look negative because Texas National Title compares to three weeks ago, and that week captured the end-of-September closing rush.
• Hays County flipped the script. Price cuts dropped from 333 to 269, and under-contract activity jumped 38% to 44. Hays was the most pressured market last week. This week it posted its best ratio of price cuts to sales in our recent reports.
• Travis and Williamson price cuts rose again. Travis went from 566 to 678 and Williamson from 574 to 668. Both are still slightly below where they were three weeks ago, but the steady improvement in Travis took a pause.
• Expired listings dropped 84% to 89%. This is a calendar effect, not a market shift. Many listing agreements end on September 30, so expirations spike at the turn of the quarter and then fall back.
• Pending sales rose week over week in every county, led by Williamson, which went from 107 to 143. More homes moving toward the closing table now means steadier closings into the holidays than we expected a few weeks ago.

County by County

Travis County: A Pause in the Progress

After three straight reports of falling price cuts (728, then 629, then 566), Travis reductions rose to 678 this week. That's about 2.8 price cuts for every home sold, up from 2.5 last week but still better than the 3.2 we saw at the end of Q3. Closings improved to 245, pending sales rose to 134, and withdrawals fell from 145 to 116. My read: sellers who adjusted early are selling, and a new group of fall listings is now going through the same pricing reset.

Hays County: The Most Improved Market This Week

Hays went from nearly five price cuts per sale last week to about three this week. Closings rose to 88, new listings rose 10%, and under contract jumped 38%. Hays is our smallest market, so one week can swing hard in either direction. Still, it's encouraging to see buyers stepping in where sellers have been most flexible on price. Hays remains the region's most negotiable market, but the gap is narrowing.

Williamson County: Strong Pipeline, More Price Pressure

Williamson tells a mixed story. Pending sales jumped to 143 and closings rose to 186, so plenty of homes are heading to the closing table. At the same time, price cuts rose to 668, under contract slipped for the third straight report (115, then 100, now 84), and withdrawals rose from 58 to 81. Buyers are active, but they're being selective, and sellers who aren't priced right are either cutting or stepping back.

How 2026 Has Played Out So Far

We started tracking the weekly Market Watch closely in mid-April. Comparing late October to that spring starting point needs a little care, because fall is always quieter than spring. Even so, a few clear patterns have emerged this year:

• Buyers have more room to negotiate than they did in spring. In April, Travis County saw about 2.4 price cuts for every home sold. Today it's about 2.8. In Williamson the ratio went from about 2.3 to 3.6, and in Hays from about 1.7 to 3.1. Every county has shifted toward buyers since spring.
• Prices have adjusted, and buyers are responding. Through August, Central Texas home sales were up nearly 8% over the same period in 2025, even as the August median price for the metro was the lowest in five years. Lower prices are bringing buyers back.
• Inventory is the big difference between counties. Travis and Williamson tightened over the past year, while Hays was the only county where active listings grew. That's why Hays has been the most negotiable market for much of the fall.
• The calendar matters. We saw expired listings spike around Labor Day and again at the end of September as spring listing agreements ran out. Sellers who priced to the market sold. Many who didn't are now planning a spring relaunch.

What This Means If You're Buying

• 2026 has been a buyer-friendly year, and that's still true heading into the holidays. Price cuts per sale are higher than they were in spring in all three counties.
• Hays buyers: move with purpose. Your leverage is real, but other buyers noticed this week. The best-priced homes are going under contract faster.
• Travis and Williamson buyers: watch the new price cuts. A fresh round of reductions means some homes that felt out of reach a month ago may fit your budget now.
• Get your financing set before Thanksgiving. Lenders, appraisers, and title companies slow down in late November and December. A pre-approval in hand lets you act when the right home appears.

What This Means If You're Selling

I'll always give it to you straight, because that's what 28 years in this market has taught me: this year rewarded sellers who priced to today's market, not last year's.

• Buyers are still writing contracts. Closings rose in every county this week, and pending sales are climbing. Serious buyers are out there right now.
• Price right from the start. The new round of price cuts in Travis and Williamson shows what happens when a fall listing starts too high. The first two weeks on the market are your best shot at the strongest offer.
• Use concessions wisely. Help with a buyer's interest rate or closing costs can do more to get a deal done than another price reduction.
• Planning for spring? Start now. Many sellers whose listings expired this fall are planning a spring relaunch. Getting repairs, updates, and pricing strategy done this winter puts you ahead of that competition.

The Bottom Line for Central Texas

Closings are climbing as we head toward the holidays, Hays County had its best week in a while, and Travis and Williamson sellers are working through another round of pricing adjustments. Looking at the full year, 2026 has been a balanced market that tilted toward buyers as the months went on, with prices that adjusted and buyers who came back because of it. Whether you're making a move before year-end or getting ready for spring, I'd love to help you build a plan that fits your part of Central Texas.

A special thank you to our partners at Texas National Title for providing the weekly Market Watch data behind this update, and for their continued support of our Central Texas community.

Warmly,
Christi Davidson
Broker Associate | Christi Davidson Real Estate Group | eXp Realty
512-426-7399 | Christi@davidsonregroup.com | www.callchristi.com
Your Trusted Real Estate Advisor for Life

Market Watch data courtesy of Texas National Title, sourced from the Austin Board of REALTORS®. Year-to-date and five-year figures from Texas National Title and the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Market data is subject to change.