Q4 2026 Kickoff: Central Texas Finds Its Footing Heading Into the Holidays

Hi, friends —

Q4 is officially underway. Two weeks ago we closed the book on Q3 with a market that was slowing down and leaning hard on price reductions. This week’s Market Watch from our friends at Texas National Title, covering October 5–12, shows the first signs of that pressure easing. It’s not a turnaround, but it’s a shift worth paying attention to. Here’s what’s happening and what it means for you.

This Week’s Snapshot

Percentages reflect the change from the Monday three weeks prior.

What stands out:

• Closings are up in all three counties. Hays led the way at 20%, with Travis and Williamson both edging higher. Homes that went under contract in late summer are now crossing the finish line.
• Price reductions are easing. They dropped in every county, and Williamson saw the biggest pullback at 10%. Travis went from 728 reductions at the end of Q3 to 629 this week.
• Fewer homes are coming to market. New listings fell across the board, with Hays down 27%. That’s normal for fall, and it means less competition for the sellers who stay in the game.
• The pipeline is thinning. Pending sales fell 23% in Travis and 30% in Williamson, and under-contract numbers slipped in all three counties. Fewer contracts today usually means fewer closings in November and December.
• Hays sellers are stepping back. Withdrawals rose 50% and expireds jumped 175%. Keep in mind that Hays is our smallest market, so 11 expired listings can produce a big percentage swing. The real takeaway is that some Hays sellers are choosing to wait for spring.

How Q4 Is Shaping Up

Looking across the year, a few trends are coming into focus as we enter the final quarter:

• The price-reduction ratio is improving. At the close of Q3, Travis County saw about three price cuts for every home sold. This week it’s closer to two and a half. Sellers who adjusted over the summer are now meeting buyers where they are, and homes are moving.
• Inventory is resetting for the holidays. Fewer new listings, plus sellers withdrawing to relaunch in spring, means the homes still on the market tend to belong to motivated owners.
• Expect a quieter November and December. The drop in pending and under-contract activity points to a typical holiday slowdown in closings. That’s seasonal, not a warning sign.
• Williamson keeps showing up. Closings rose from 171 at the end of Q3 to 204 this week. It continues to be the region’s most consistent volume market.

What This Means If You’re Buying

• This is your window. Fewer buyers are shopping between now and the new year, and the sellers who remain are serious. That combination gives you room to negotiate on price, repairs, and closing costs.
• Don’t wait for the bottom. Price reductions are easing, which suggests sellers have largely adjusted. Buyers waiting for a deeper discount may find that spring brings more competition instead.
• Keep an eye on Hays County. With more sellers pulling back, the homes still listed there may belong to owners who are ready to make a deal.
• Get your financing in order now. Holiday schedules slow down lenders, appraisers, and title. A pre-approval in hand lets you move quickly when the right home appears.

What This Means If You’re Selling

I’ll always give it to you straight, because that’s what 28 years in this market has taught me: the sellers winning right now are the ones who priced it right and showed up ready.

• Less competition is on your side. With new listings down across all three counties, a well-prepared home stands out more in Q4 than it did in summer.
• Price to the market, not the memory. The drop in price reductions means sellers are getting realistic, and buyers are rewarding them with closings. Starting at the right number is still the fastest path to a sale.
• Holiday buyers mean business. Nobody tours homes in December for fun. The buyers out there now are relocating, have deadlines, or simply want to be settled before the new year.
• Planning a spring sale? Start now. If you’re among the sellers waiting for spring, the next few months are the perfect time to handle repairs, updates, and pricing strategy so you can launch strong when the season turns.

The Bottom Line for Central Texas

The first full week of Q4 brought welcome news: more closings and fewer price cuts across Travis, Hays, and Williamson counties. The market is finding its footing after a challenging summer. The softer pipeline tells us a seasonal slowdown is on the way, but this remains a balanced market that rewards buyers who are prepared and sellers who are realistic. Whether you’re thinking about this season or next spring, now is the time to make a plan.

A special thank you to our partners at Texas National Title for providing the weekly Market Watch data behind this update and for their continued support of our Central Texas community. You can explore more of their market stats at texasnationaltitle.com/austin/tools/mls-statistics.

Thinking about buying or selling before the holidays, or getting ready for spring? Let’s talk.

Christi Davidson
Broker Associate | Christi Davidson Real Estate Group | eXp Realty
📞 512-426-7399 | ✉️ Christi@davidsonregroup.com | 🌐 www.callchristi.com
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