Q3 2026 Closeout: What the Central Texas Market Is Telling Us Heading Into Fall

Hi, friends —

The third quarter is officially in the books, and it's the right time to step back from the week-to-week numbers and look at the bigger picture. Our friends at Texas National Title just delivered the final Market Watch of the quarter, covering September 21–28. Paired with what we've watched unfold since July, it tells a clear story. Here's what's happening and what it means for you.

This Week's Snapshot

Percentages reflect the change from the Monday three weeks prior.

What stands out:

• Price reductions are the headline. They rose in all three counties even as almost everything else slowed. Travis County logged 728 reductions against just 229 closings, so for every home that sold, roughly three sellers lowered their price.
• Closings and new listings are down across the board. That's typical for fall. Both buyers and sellers are easing off after the summer.
• Travis County under-contract activity ticked up 3%. It's the one activity number that moved up this week, and it's a sign that well-priced homes in the core are still finding buyers.
• The big drop in expired listings is not a sudden improvement. Three weeks ago, a wave of spring listings hit the end of their listing agreements around Labor Day. This week's numbers are compared against that spike, so the steep percentage drop mostly shows that wave has passed.
• Fewer sellers are withdrawing. Withdrawals fell in every county. Many sellers who planned to pull their homes and wait already did so over the summer.

The Quarter in Review: July Through September

When I look back across Q3, the market moved through three distinct chapters.

July brought a wave of price cuts. Early in the quarter, price reductions jumped sharply across all three counties, with Hays and Williamson leading the way. Sellers who had listed in spring with high expectations started adjusting to the market in front of them.

August cooled off. Late summer brought the usual slowdown as families settled in for the school year. New listings, contracts, and closings all eased back.

September finished the reset. Labor Day brought a surge of expired listings as spring agreements ran out. The quarter now ends with activity at its lowest point since spring, while price reductions remain as high as ever.

The contrast with spring is striking. In mid-April, Travis County saw 602 new listings and 300 closings in a single week. This week, those numbers were 408 and 229. Travis price reductions this week (728) exactly match that same April week. That tells me pricing pressure hasn't been a seasonal blip. It has been a constant feature of 2026.

The longer view supports this. Through midsummer, regional home sales were running at their strongest pace since 2022, while median prices stayed well below the 2022 peak and inventory sat in buyer-leaning territory. Homes are selling. Buyers are simply in the stronger negotiating position, and sellers who price for today's market are the ones closing.

What This Means If You're Buying

Fall may be the best window of 2026 for buyers.

• You have leverage. With hundreds of price reductions every week in every county, sellers expect to negotiate. Concessions, repairs, and closing-cost help are all fair asks.
• You'll face less competition. Buyer activity is slowing heading into the holidays, which means fewer people competing for the homes you want.
• Watch for homes coming back. Many listings that expired or were withdrawn this summer will come back this fall at more realistic prices. Being ready to move when the right one reappears is how buyers win in a market like this.
• Stay selective. A slower market doesn't mean every home is a bargain. The data helps us separate a genuine opportunity from a home that's priced right but simply hasn't sold yet.

What This Means If You're Selling

I'll be honest with you, because that's what 28 years in this market has taught me to do: sellers don't have the upper hand right now, and the numbers show it.

• Price it right from the start. Homes priced correctly on day one are the ones going under contract, and that's why Travis under-contract activity held steady this week. Homes that start high usually end up in the price-reduction column.
• Condition matters more than ever. Buyers have choices. Homes that are clean, updated, and ready to move into stand apart from the ones that need work.
• Fall and winter sellers are serious sellers. If you're planning to list before spring, you'll face less competition from other sellers. Many will wait for spring, and the buyers who shop in the fall are usually ready to act.
• If your listing expired this summer, let's talk. A fresh strategy on price, presentation, and timing can make all the difference on a relaunch.

The Bottom Line for Central Texas

Q3 2026 confirmed what the whole year has been building toward: Central Texas has shifted into a balanced-to-buyer market that rewards preparation over speculation. Travis County's core is holding up best, Williamson remains the region's steady volume engine with active price negotiation, and Hays continues to offer some of the best value opportunities for buyers willing to look south. As we head into Q4, I expect a typical holiday slowdown, followed by a telling spring once the fall relistings run their course.

Whatever this market means for your plans, you don't have to figure it out on your own.

A special thank you to our partners at Texas National Title for providing the weekly Market Watch data behind this update and for their ongoing support of our Central Texas community. You can explore more of their market stats at texasnationaltitle.com/austin/tools/mls-statistics.

Thinking about buying or selling this fall? Let's talk.

Christi Davidson
Broker Associate | Christi Davidson Real Estate Group | eXp Realty
📞 512-426-7399 | ✉️ Christi@davidsonregroup.com | 🌐 www.callchristi.com
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